Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s Chances of Beating Rick Scott in Florida: Polls

Former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell won her Democratic Senate primary in Florida on Tuesday and is officially set to fight an uphill battle against incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott in Florida.
Florida has shifted from being widely seen as a swing state to becoming solidly red in recent elections. Governor Ron DeSantis, the state’s Republican leader, handily won reelection in the 2022 midterms by a nearly 20-point margin.
Former President Donald Trump won the state where he currently resides in 2016 and again in 2020. However, the state did go blue for former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Scott, for his part, won the 2018 Senate election with a narrow margin of just 0.12 percent, or about 10,000 votes.
An August poll from USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV showed Scott’s favorability underwater. Only 35 percent viewed the GOP senator favorably, whereas 49 percent saw him unfavorably.
Mucarsel-Powell served one term in the House before losing to a Trump-backed Republican in the 2020 election. But Democrats hope to reclaim the state and capitalize on Scott’s unfavorability in Florida. Recent polls suggest that Mucarsel-Powell is still lagging behind her Republican opponent.
Newsweek reached out to the Mucarsel-Powell and Scott campaigns via email on Wednesday for comment.
The most recent poll of the race, carried out by Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research from August 10 to 11, shows Scott with a 4-point lead among voters. The Republican had the support of 47 percent of respondents compared to 43 percent who supported Mucarsel-Powell.
The survey included 1,055 registered voters. Due to the methodology, pollsters involved with the survey did not give the data an official margin of error, but they said in their press release that “a poll of this size typically has a margin of error of +/—3% at the 95% confidence level.”
Another August poll by McLaughlin & Associates showed Scott leading his Democratic rival by double digits. The senator had the backing of 52 percent of respondents, with Mucarsel-Powell at 42 percent. The survey included 800 likely voters.
In late July, the University of North Florida conducted a survey showing Mucarsel-Powell down by 4 points. The Democrat was at 43 percent compared to the Republican’s 47 percent. The overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points with 774 likely voters.
The Real Clear polling average for the Florida Senate race has Scott leading by about 5.7 points. The Republican has an average of 46 percent support, whereas the Democrat has about 40.3 percent.
Democrats are also hoping that a ballot measure seeking to shore up abortion rights in Florida will give them a boost in the November election. Amendment 4 aims to amend the state’s constitution to say that no Florida law “shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health.”
A six-week abortion ban went into effect in Florida in May. Democrats have successfully passed similar ballot measures nationwide, including in red states. In many cases, these efforts have also appeared to boost Democratic candidates on the ballot.
With only a 50-49 majority in their favor, Democrats are playing defense this election cycle to maintain control of the Senate.
Democratic incumbents in Ohio and Montana face tough reelection bids in their red-leaning states. Senator Joe Manchin in conservative West Virginia has chosen not to seek reelection, with popular Republican Governor Jim Justice widely expected to win his seat.
Meanwhile, Democrats don’t appear to have strong pickup opportunities against GOP incumbents. Florida may be one of the party’s best chances to flip a red seat blue, but polling currently suggests it will be difficult.